Spread betting in New Zealand: who may take your bet, and who may not

Updated October 2026

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October 30, 2026 · Cross-checked against the Racing Industry Act 2020 (as amended in 2025) and the Department of Internal Affairs register of authorised operators.

A spread bet does not ask “who wins?”. It asks “by how much?”. The punter picks a level above or below the bookmaker’s spread, sets a stake per point, and the final profit or loss is the stake multiplied by the number of points the outcome lands away from that level. There is no ceiling on the losing side, which is the single thing the word “spread” tries to hide. In New Zealand this matters more than most markets, because only one operator may lawfully offer racing and sports betting here, and spread betting sits outside the catalogue the law allows that operator to run. The page below works through what spread betting is, why it is not on the menu of the only lawful provider, and which offshore brands a New Zealand punter meets — and what each of them is, in plain words, rather than in the slogans they put on their landing pages.

How the spread-betting landscape looks in New Zealand

The starting point is blunt. Section 74AAA of the Racing Industry Act 2020, in force since 28 June 2025, makes TAB New Zealand the only provider lawfully permitted to offer sports betting, racing betting or “other racing or sports betting” to a person in New Zealand, regardless of where the operator is incorporated or where the punter is sitting. The Department of Internal Affairs followed the amendment with a written instruction to providers serving New Zealand customers to withdraw with immediate effect, and the change is the reason the offshore bookmakers that line up further down this page sit outside the New Zealand law rather than inside it.

A shortlist for New Zealand readers thus has a specific shape. TAB and Betcha are the two online brands of the same monopoly operator and are reviewed first, on their own merits. The remaining names — Rabona, Sportaza, RTbet, Telbet, 22Bet, Rooster, Spinbara and Thunderpick — are brands a New Zealand punter encounters in offshore marketing but that, under current law, are not authorised to take bets from anyone in New Zealand. They are described on this page because a comparison that ignores them leaves half the question unanswered, and each carries the “not licensed in New Zealand” label on its row. The structure is not a ranking from best to worst — it is a split between what the law permits and what the marketing reaches.

The first column is the same on every site this comparison runs on, but the way each row is summarised is the editor’s call. A reader scanning this table before reading anything else sees the law in the second column and the product shape in the third; everything further down is a closer read of the rows the table only sketches.

The fundamentals of a spread

Spread betting comes from the work of Charles K. McNeil, a Connecticut mathematics teacher who became a Chicago bookmaker in the 1940s. McNeil’s idea was that odds on a moneyline did not reflect what the public actually wanted to bet on, and that a margin of victory — or a total score, or a market in any unit — carries a handicap that made both sides of the bet attractive at once. Two forms of the idea still sit under the same word, and they settle in different ways.

In the UK sports-spread model the bookmaker quotes a range — a spread — such as 340–350 runs in a cricket total. The punter buys at the top of the range, betting that the outcome will finish above 350, or sells at the bottom, betting it will finish below 340. The stake is set per point. If the team scores 400 and the punter bought at 350, the win is 50 units multiplied by the per-unit stake; if the team scores 300 and the punter bought at 350, the loss is 50 units multiplied by the per-unit stake. The same stake rides both ways. There is no cap on the losing side beyond the punter’s willingness to keep the position open, which is the trait that makes spread betting the leveraged product it is.

In the North American point-spread model the bookmaker quotes a handicap — a line of −6.5 on a football favourite, for instance — and the punter backs the favourite to win by more than the line or the outsider to keep the margin inside it. The standard price is ten to eleven, written as −110 in American odds or roughly 1.91 in decimal form. A result that lands exactly on the spread is a push and the stake is returned. This is the form most New Zealand readers have seen in coverage of American football, basketball and Super Bowl markets, and it is the form that gets confused with sports spread betting in a search query — both call themselves “the spread”, and the difference is the part that decides what a winning and a losing bet pays back.

A useful illustration. With a cricket spread of 340–350 runs, buying at 350 returns 50 units times the stake if the team finishes on 400 runs and costs 50 units times the stake if the team finishes on 300 runs. The same stake is at risk on both sides of the bet, and the bookmaker is willing to take either side at the same quoted range because the margin is built into the width of the spread. Where the range says 340 to 350 and the bookmaker is content to lay both sides, the implied margin is wider than the same market quoted as a single price at 1.91 / 1.91, because each side of a spread carries an asymmetry the flat price does not.

How a bookmaker’s margin sits inside the odds

The margin is the share of every dollar wagered that the bookmaker expects to keep, and it is the number to read before any price is taken at face value. For a two-way market with decimal odds of 1.90 on both sides, the calculation is straightforward. The payout share is the reciprocal of the sum of the reciprocals of the prices, which here is 1 ÷ (1 ÷ 1.90 + 1 ÷ 1.90). Working through it: 1 ÷ 1.90 = 0.5263, the sum of the two sides is 1.0526, and 1 ÷ 1.0526 = 0.9501, or about 95.0 percent. The margin is 1 minus the payout share, which works out to roughly 5.0 percent — a band of about 4.5 to 5.5 percent depending on the exact price the writer runs.

That band, not a single figure, is the honest answer. A market at 1.90 / 1.90 carries a margin in the high single digits; a market at 1.95 / 1.95 carries one in the low single digits; a market at 1.80 / 1.80 carries one closer to ten. The number is a property of one market on one event with one snapshot of prices, and it is wrong to carry it across to another market or another sport. The bookmaker’s edge is built into every price the punter sees, and the spread version of the same idea is wider because both sides of the range are quoted simultaneously and the asymmetry between the buy and the sell sits inside the width.

A spread-betting punter who watches only the price per unit and not the width of the quoted range is missing where the margin actually sits in this product. In a 1.90 / 1.90 fixed-odds market the edge is roughly 5 percent; in a 340–350 spread the edge sits in the gap between the two ends of the range, and the wider the gap the larger the edge per unit on either side. The shape of the product is different even when the headline numbers look close.

What spread betting costs the punter who gets it wrong

The arithmetic of a spread bet is what makes it a leveraged product. In financial spread betting the collateral posted is typically 5 to 10 percent of the total exposure, and the loss on a single position is not capped at the stake in the way a flat fixed-odds loss is capped. A punter who buys 50 units of a cricket spread at $1 a unit with a team that then finishes on 300 runs loses $50 — five times the per-unit stake. A punter who takes a much larger position on a much wider spread and gets the call wrong by a long way can lose several multiples of the original margin posted, which is why the broker requires collateral and the punter is asked to confirm the position size before it is taken.

The point is not that this is a worse product than fixed-odds betting for every punter. It is that the cost of getting it wrong scales with how wrong the call is, and a punter who treats a spread as if it were a fixed-odds line will misjudge the risk they are taking. New Zealand readers who have only ever placed a tote win bet or a Same Game Multi on the TAB app have not met this product, and the difference is the part to understand before considering any offshore brand that does offer it.

Legality, regulation and the New Zealand frame

The Racing Industry Act 2020 establishes TAB New Zealand as the betting provider for racing and sports in New Zealand, and the Racing Industry Amendment Act 2025 inserted section 74AAA to close the door that offshore operators had been walking through. The amendment took effect on 28 June 2025; the Department of Internal Affairs wrote to operators serving New Zealand customers telling them to withdraw with immediate effect, and the prohibition covers sports betting, racing betting and any “other racing or sports betting” offered to a person in New Zealand — regardless of where that person lives or where the operator is incorporated. The Department of Internal Affairs monitors compliance under the Gambling Act 2003 and enforces the betting prohibition under section 92A of the Racing Industry Act 2020.

There is no licensing route for another sports bookmaker and no licence register for bookmakers, because there is only one lawful operator. The law does not geo-block offshore websites; it puts liability on the offshore operator that targets New Zealand customers. The Department of Internal Affairs has warned players that overseas operators may sit in jurisdictions with minimal consumer safeguards, may not return unspent credits and may not pay out large wins, and the warning is part of how the regulator frames the choice a New Zealand punter is making when an offshore brand is in the picture.

Two follow-on points matter. First, the Online Casino Gambling Act 2026 creates a separate online casino framework and does not change the sports-betting monopoly; a casino licence held by TAB New Zealand does not extend the betting monopoly, and an online casino licence held by an offshore casino does not let that brand take sports bets from New Zealand customers. Second, greyhound racing is being closed in stages from 1 August 2026; from that date offshore operators may not take bets on greyhound races either, because the underlying product has gone.

The tax side is clean for the punter and clean enough for the operator. Recreational gambling winnings are generally not taxable in New Zealand, and prize money from TAB horse, dog and trotting races is not taxable either. A punter who bets as a business is a different question, and the Inland Revenue guidance is the place to read it. On the operator side, TAB New Zealand pays the Problem Gambling Levy of 0.74 percent — in force from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2028 — and overseas operators supplying New Zealand residents pay online gambling duty of 12 percent of profits since 1 July 2024, rising to 16 percent from 1 January 2027. Paying duty does not make an offer lawful. The point-of-consumption charge on offshore racing and sports bets ceased on 30 June 2026.

What TAB and Betcha actually offer, and why spread betting is not on the menu

TAB New Zealand is run in partnership with Entain under a 25-year agreement signed in 2023, with a 50/50 share of gross profits and a minimum of $150 million a year flowing to TAB New Zealand for the first five years, alongside a one-off $100 million payment from Entain to the racing sector. TAB and Betcha are the two online brands of the same operator — TAB sits at the racing-and-sports betting core, and Betcha sits on a more social product with a daily Toolbox of odds boosts and insurance tools, a Bet Social section where punters chat and follow tipsters, and a Playbook of tips and match analysis.

The product range on TAB covers fixed-odds and tote (pool) bets, with the betting rules spelling out Win, Place, Each Way, Quinella, Exacta, Trifecta, First Four, Double, Treble, Daily Double, Running Double, Quaddie and Big6, alongside Multis and Same Game Multis. Live betting is available in the TAB NZ apps. What is not on the menu is spread betting, because the Racing Industry Act’s definition of TAB NZ’s sports betting leaves it out — and the offshore-branded “spread” markets a New Zealand punter sometimes sees quoted on social channels are the financial-spread product, the North American point-spread product, or marketing language for a handicap line, none of which is what the search term usually means.

The verdict on TAB and Betcha, taken as a pair, is straightforward. A New Zealand punter who wants to bet on racing and sport within New Zealand law bets with one of these two brands, and the choice between them is about product shape — TAB for the deep racing catalogue and tote dividends, Betcha for the social product, the boosts and the insurance tools. Neither offers spread betting, and neither will, under the current law. A punter who wants a spread-bet product is, today, looking outside New Zealand law.

The offshore brands a New Zealand punter meets

The brands below are rated against the same criteria as the TAB brands, but the row in the New Zealand status column is the same on each one: not licensed in New Zealand. The Department of Internal Affairs has told providers serving New Zealand customers to withdraw; the Curaçao, Anjouan and Tobique licences these brands carry give no right to take bets from anyone in New Zealand; and the New Zealand harm-minimisation framework and complaints routes do not reach them. What each brand does on its own site is described from the brand’s own terms, because a comparison that ignores the actual mechanics erases half the data a punter needs to weigh.

Rabona

Rabona launched on 23 December 2019 as the sixth online sportsbook of the Soft2Bet group. The brand runs a fixed-odds sportsbook with a casino back end; the welcome offer is a deposit match across the casino and the sportsbook. There is no sports spread-betting product on the menu, which is the most relevant point for the search query this page answers — Rabona is a familiar offshore shape, not a spread-betting broker. The Curaçao licence is the regulatory frame the brand sits in, and it does not extend to New Zealand.

Sportaza

Sportaza is the offshore sportsbook that runs the widest product surface among the brands in this comparison. The terms page lists cash out before an event or market is settled, a Bet Builder in which a single void leg voids the whole betslip, multiples, Asian lines and interval markets at one, five, ten or fifteen-minute ranges. The brand carries an Anjouan licence, which gives no right to take bets from people in New Zealand, and the brand is not in the New Zealand complaints framework.

RTbet

RTbet runs cash out before an event or market is settled, fixes the cash-out amount at the moment it is accepted, and reserves the right not to make the feature available on every market. The product is a fixed-odds sportsbook with a casino back end and a Curaçao licence, and the regulatory frame does not extend to New Zealand. For a punter weighing risk, the cash-out rule is the detail worth keeping — the price is locked at acceptance, not at settlement, which means a fast market can move between the two.

Telbet

Telbet describes itself as a crypto casino and sportsbook. The brand’s Russian-language site carries a welcome offer of a 200 percent deposit match up to 1 BTC plus 50 free spins, alongside a small USDT free bet. The brand names no licence that applies in New Zealand, and the absence of a New Zealand licence is the single most relevant point on the row. A punter who is here because of the spread-betting question will not find a spread-betting product on Telbet either.

22Bet

22Bet takes single bets, accumulators, systems and chains, and runs a live-betting product with real-time odds and score updates. The brand sits behind a Curaçao licence held by TechSolutions Group N.V., and the regulatory frame does not extend to New Zealand. The product shape is the conventional offshore sportsbook, with a deep pre-match catalogue and a live-betting suite — useful to know for a punter comparing offshore brands, and not relevant to the spread-betting question.

Rooster

Rooster is operated by Novatrix SRL, a company incorporated in Costa Rica with registration number 3-102-893958, under e-gaming licence No. 0000002 issued by the Tobique Gaming Commission. The brand is new on the offshore scene and the product surface is the standard fixed-odds sportsbook. The Tobique licence does not give a right to take bets from people in New Zealand, and the brand is not in the New Zealand complaints framework.

Spinbara

Spinbara carries a casino-led product with a sportsbook attached. The English-language site lists a first-deposit bonus of 100 percent up to EUR 100 and a sport crypto welcome bonus of 100 percent up to 200 USDT, alongside a casino welcome bonus of 100 percent up to EUR 500 plus 200 free spins. The brand names no licence that applies in New Zealand, and the regulatory frame is the same caveat as the other offshore names. A punter comparing the row weighs the casino weighting of the product, because the sportsbook sits inside a casino-led brand rather than the other way round.

Thunderpick

Thunderpick is owned and operated by Paloma Media B.V., a Curaçao company with company number 146988, licensed by the Curaçao Gaming Authority under licence number OGL/2024/677/0722. The product is crypto esports and casino with a sports section, and the regulatory frame does not extend to New Zealand. The brand’s centre of gravity is esports rather than traditional sports, and the comparison row reflects that shape.

Responsible gambling, the New Zealand framework and what each brand does

The age for TAB New Zealand betting is 18, set under section 89 of the Racing Industry Act 2020, and betting under 18 is an offence under that section. The age for land-based casinos in New Zealand is 20, and the two ages are not interchangeable. TAB accounts need a verified New Zealand address and identity, and the verification is part of how the regulator and the operator keep minors and excluded players off the platform.

The safer-gambling tools TAB lists in its app are deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion, and the exclusion applies across both TAB and Betcha because they are the same operator. The free Gambling Helpline is 0800 654 655, with a text line at 8006, and Safer Gambling Aotearoa is the government-funded education and treatment service. There is no single national online-betting exclusion register; the register that the 2026 online casino law will require is for online casinos only. TAB New Zealand is required to keep the risks of problem and underage gambling minimised and pays the Problem Gambling Levy of 0.74 percent.

The offshore brands in the comparison do not sit inside this framework. The Curaçao, Anjouan and Tobique licences carry their own player-protection obligations, but the New Zealand harm-minimisation tools — the helpline, the Safer Gambling Aotearoa service, the deposit-limit and self-exclusion mechanics, the regulator’s complaints route — do not reach them. The Department of Internal Affairs has flagged that offshore operators may be in jurisdictions with minimal consumer safeguards, may not return unspent credits and may not pay out large wins. A punter reading this page and weighing an offshore brand against TAB is weighing that difference as well as the product difference.

Bet types, odds formats and what a sportsbook actually quotes

The fixed-odds catalogue on TAB covers Win, Place, Each Way, Quinella, Exacta, Trifecta, First Four, Double, Treble, Daily Double, Running Double, Quaddie and Big6, alongside Multis and Same Game Multis. The odds format on the TAB app is decimal; the per-unit stake is fixed by the punter; the dividend on a tote bet is set by the pool. The offshore brands in this comparison use a mix of formats — Ivibet, for instance, lists Decimal (2.00), American (+100) and Fractional (1/1) as the three formats on offer, and 22Bet’s pre-match and live pages run decimal odds as the default.

A Same Game Multi on TAB is a multi whose legs come from a single event — a Warriors NRL match, for example, with leg markets on the margin, the first try-scorer and the total points. The accumulator insurance products some offshore brands run, by contrast, refund a stake as a free bet when one leg of an accumulator lets the punter down, and the refund comes as bonus bets rather than cash. The mechanics of the refund decide what the offer costs the punter who takes it, and the rule is the part to read before any bonus is claimed.

Live betting is the part of the product that varies most across the comparison. TAB NZ’s apps carry live betting on the markets the operator runs; 22Bet runs live betting with real-time odds and score updates; RTbet and Sportaza run cash out before settlement, with the RTbet cash-out amount locked at acceptance and the Sportaza Bet Builder voiding the betslip on a single void leg. The market margin on a live market is wider than on a pre-match market, because the price moves with the action and the bookmaker’s edge sits in the spread of prices available at any moment rather than at a single published line. A punter who watches the live markets is watching the bookmaker’s margin in motion.

Sports and tournaments a New Zealand punter bets on

The TAB catalogue runs across the three racing codes — thoroughbred, harness (trots) and greyhounds, with greyhounds closing from 1 August 2026 — alongside the national sporting organisations and the major international competitions. Super Rugby Pacific, NRL and the All Blacks carry the rugby league and rugby union weight; the Black Caps carry the cricket; the Warriors carry the NRL presence; and the Melbourne Cup and Cup Day carry the spring racing weight on the racing side. The Melbourne Cup is the single biggest pool event on the New Zealand racing calendar and runs as a major Quaddie and Big6 carrier on TAB.

The offshore brands in this comparison carry the same international events — NBA basketball, NFL American football, English Premier League and Champions League football, ATP and WTA tennis, the major boxing cards — with the depth of market and the breadth of competition varying by brand. Sportaza’s Bet Builder and Asian lines are the most relevant product differences on the football side, and RTbet’s locked-at-acceptance cash-out is the most relevant product difference on the in-play side. A punter weighing offshore against TAB is weighing the international depth against the New Zealand framework.

How a spread bet actually works, step by step

A punter who wants the mechanics clear before weighing any product reads them in this order. The bookmaker quotes a spread — 340–350 runs on a cricket total, 2.5–3.0 goals on a football total, 18.5–19.5 on a basketball total. The punter picks a side: buying at the top of the spread bets the outcome will finish above the upper edge; selling at the bottom bets the outcome will finish below the lower edge. The punter sets the stake per point — the per-unit exposure.

The punter confirms the position. The bookmaker accepts. From this point, profit and loss move with the outcome. If the punter buys at 350 with a $1 per-unit stake on a cricket total, a finish of 400 returns 50 units multiplied by $1, which is $50. A finish of 300 costs 50 units multiplied by $1, which is $50. A finish of 350 returns zero on this level, and the result is a push equivalent. The punter can close the position before the event finishes if the bookmaker allows it, and the closing price is the spread at the moment the close is accepted.

The mechanic is the same across sports. The market — runs, goals, points, games — is the variable; the per-unit stake is the punter’s exposure; the spread is the bookmaker’s quoted range; and the outcome’s distance from the spread determines the profit or the loss. The punter who treats the spread as a single price rather than a range is missing the asymmetry the bookmaker has built into the width.

The calculation a punter can run on any price

The page’s working calculation is the margin of an illustrative two-way market at decimal odds of 1.90 on each side. The payout share is the reciprocal of the sum of the reciprocals of the two prices, which here works out to roughly 95.0 percent — 1 divided by 1.0526. The margin is 1 minus the payout share, which works out to roughly 5.0 percent, in a band of about 4.5 to 5.5 percent depending on the exact prices the writer runs.

The gloss is straightforward: a market at 1.90 / 1.90 carries a margin in the high single digits, and the wider the gap between the two prices the larger the edge the bookmaker has built in. The calculation is an estimate of the bookmaker’s edge on average across the bets placed at those prices, not a guaranteed outcome for any single bet. The margin tells the punter how much of each dollar wagered the bookmaker expects to keep as revenue.

Worked examples on the two spread formats

The UK sports-spread example sits on a cricket total. With a spread of 340–350 runs and a $1 per-unit stake, buying at 350 returns $50 on a finish of 400 and costs $50 on a finish of 300. Selling at 340 returns $50 on a finish of 280 and costs $50 on a finish of 360. The wider the spread, the larger the per-unit risk on either side.

The North American point-spread example sits on a football handicap. With a line of −6.5 on a favourite at the standard −110 price (roughly 1.91 in decimal form), a $110 stake returns $100 of profit on a favourite that wins by seven or more and loses the $110 stake on a win by six or fewer. A result that lands on seven exactly is a push and the $110 stake is returned. The same stake rides the outcome, but the loss is capped at the stake — which is the difference between the point-spread model and the UK sports-spread model.

The financial-spread model sits on a market index or a forex pair, with the punter buying or selling a price per point of movement and the broker holding 5–10 percent of the total exposure as collateral. The loss on a single position is not capped at the original collateral, which is why the broker asks for confirmation on the position size before the trade is taken.

Where the offshore brands sit on the spread-betting question

None of the offshore brands in this comparison run a sports-spread betting product. The North American point-spread product is offered as a handicap line on football, basketball and the major US sports; the financial-spread product is offered by specialist brokers not in this comparison; the UK sports-spread product is offered by specialist firms not in this comparison. A New Zealand punter who searches for “spread betting” and lands on an offshore sportsbook page is most likely looking at a handicap line being marketed as “the spread”, which is the North American model at the standard −110 price rather than the leveraged UK product.

The verdict on the offshore brands, taken together, is that the comparison is between the regulatory frame rather than between the products. Each of these brands offers a fixed-odds sportsbook with a similar product surface — pre-match markets, live betting, cash out on selected markets, a casino back end — and the differences between them are product details rather than product categories. A punter weighing one against another is weighing the Asian lines and the locked-at-acceptance cash-out, the welcome offer and the licence jurisdiction, rather than weighing one against the other on the spread-betting question.

The choice, written plainly

A New Zealand punter who wants to bet on racing and sport within New Zealand law has one operator, two brands and no spread-betting product. The choice between TAB and Betcha is a choice between the racing-and-sports core and the social product with the boosts and the insurance tools. A New Zealand punter who wants a spread-betting product is looking outside New Zealand law, and the brands the search results return are fixed-odds sportsbooks marketed as if the spread-betting product were on the menu — which it is not, on the standard offshore sportsbook.

The page does not invite the reader to sign up with any brand, and the brands named above are named for comparison, not for promotion. The law is what the law is; the products are what the products are; and the punter who reads both and weighs both is the punter who has the information the page set out to put on the table.

Frequently asked questions

How does spread betting work in football?

Spread betting on football quotes a range — a spread — on a market such as total goals or a corner count. The punter buys above the spread, expecting the outcome to finish higher, or sells below it, expecting the outcome to finish lower. The profit or loss is the stake per unit multiplied by the number of units the outcome lands away from the chosen level. The same stake rides both directions, and there is no cap on the losing side beyond the punter’s own exposure.

How do you bet against the spread?

Betting against the spread in the North American model means taking the points — backing the outsider plus the handicap. In the UK sports-spread model the same idea is selling at the bottom of the range, betting the outcome will finish below the spread. The two products settle differently: the North American model caps the loss at the stake, while the UK model scales the loss with how far the outcome lands from the spread.

How do you bet against the spread in football?

In North American football the line is usually a whole number or a half, and the punter takes the points on the outsider, needing the outsider to keep the margin inside the line or to win outright. A finish exactly on the spread is a push and the stake is returned. The standard price is ten to eleven, written as −110 in American odds or about 1.91 in decimal form.

Which bookmaker may lawfully take sports and racing bets in New Zealand?

TAB New Zealand is the only provider lawfully permitted to offer racing and sports betting to a person in New Zealand, under section 74AAA of the Racing Industry Act 2020, in force since 28 June 2025. TAB and Betcha are the two online brands of that operator. There is no licensing route for another bookmaker and no licence register for betting, because the law reserves the activity to TAB New Zealand.

How is the return on a bet worked out from the stake and the odds?

For a fixed-odds bet the return is the stake multiplied by the decimal odds; the net profit is the stake multiplied by the decimal odds minus one. For a combination bet the odds of the legs multiply into one price, and the return is the stake multiplied by that combined price. The figures are the inputs the punter sets and the bookmaker confirms at the moment the bet is taken.

What is the bookmaker’s margin and how can it be seen in the odds?

The margin is the share of every dollar wagered that the bookmaker expects to keep on average, and it sits inside every price the punter sees. For a two-way market with decimal odds of 1.90 on both sides, the payout share works out to about 95.0 percent and the margin to about 5.0 percent — in a band of roughly 4.5 to 5.5 percent depending on the exact prices. The wider the gap between the two prices, the larger the margin, and the number is a property of one market on one event with one snapshot of prices.

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